Discrepancies in Bilateral Trade Statistics

For bilateral trade flow, there are usually two sources of data from
1. exporting country,
2. importing country

Intuitively, the exports reported by an exporting country should mirror the imports reported by its trading partner. In reality, it rarely the case. Why?

Reasons based on the study by various international organization.

1.Time lags
2. Valuation
3. Types of goods excluded from trade statistics
4. Trade System
5. Extent of re-export
6. Methodology difference
7.Exchange rate
etc


Some of the studies compiled:
What's the difference?-Comparing U.S and Chinese Trade Data
Discrepancies in Bilateral Trade Statistics: The case of Hong Kong and Singapore
Mirror Statistics , UN
Difference in the Mirror Statistics in INTRASTAT, EU
Why are imports and exports different? ITS, Newsletter
Adjusting Chinese Bilateral Trade Data: How Big is China's Trade Surplus? IMF

World trade Slipped to 6 % growth in 2007

5 November 2008
INTERNATIONAL TRADE STATISTICS
World trade slipped to 6 per cent growth in 2007, WTO report confirms

http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news08_e/its_oct08_e.htm

Weakening demand in developed countries, realignments in exchange rates and fluctuations in the prices for commodities, such as oil and gas, introduced uncertainties into the global markets in 2007. As a result, growth in world merchandise trade slipped to 6 per cent in real terms, down from 8.5 per cent in 2006, according to statistics published by the WTO on 5 November

FORECAST

Model 1:
Example to forecast export whole year 2008 with reference month up to september 2008

Xpts 2008 (9 mths) +(3mths for manufactured xprts + other commodities and mining goods other than petroleum and palm oil) X (revised GDP Q4 growth/Original GDP for Q4) + (Oct-Dec xpts of petroleum related products + xpts of palm oil) = 2008 Total exports (forecasted)


Model II.

Xpts of 2008 (9mths) + real Q4 GDP growth x avrage monthly export x 3 = 2008 Total exports (foreasted)


To get 2009 Xpts

2009 Xpts = 2008 total exports x real GDP growth projected for 2009

World Economic Outlook database (IMF)

Here can

Download entire World Economic Outlook database October 2008

The downloads below consist of two files. The "By Countries" file contains series data for all countries, and the "By Country Groups" file contains series data for all country groups (aggregated data).

As many series are either not available or not applicable, there will be empty cells in the dataset. All available data that can be released to the public are incorporated into one of these two files.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/02/weodata/download.aspx

In 2007 Trade Merchandise: Malaysia ranked as 19th largest exporter & 25th largest importer

Press/520/Rev.117 April 2008WORLD TRADE 2007, PROSPECTS FOR 2008WTO: developing, transition economies cushion trade slowdown

World trade growth slid to 5.5% last year from 8.5% in 2006 and may grow even more slowly in 2008 — at about 4.5% — as sharp economic deceleration in key developed countries is only partly offset by continuing strong growth in emerging economies, according to World Trade Organization economists.

World Merchandise Trade: In 2007, Malaysia rank as 19th largest exporter and 25th largest importer.

For details please clik. http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres08_e/pr520_e.htm

Global Competitiveness Index 2008 - 2009

For information. Excerpt from www.btimes.com.my. The full ranking is as per attach and for full report please click http://www.weforum.org/documents/GCR0809/index.html
Malaysia among top 6 Asian economies

Published: 2008/10/09
MALAYSIA ranks 21st in overall performance out of 134 countries in the Global Competitiveness Report 2008-2009 released by World Economic Forum (WEF) in Geneva, Switzerland yesterday.

Malaysia is among the top six Asian economies after Singapore (5th), Japan (9th), Hong Kong (11th), Korea (13th) and Taiwan (17th). The country is ahead of China (30th), Thailand (34th), Brunei (39th), India (50th), Indonesia (55th), Vietnam (70th) and the Philippines (71st).

It is also ahead of Ireland, New Zealand, Luxembourg and Spain, which ranked between 22nd and 29th. The report features the Global Competitive Index, which captures the microeconomic and macroeconomic foundations of national competitiveness. The top five countries in the index are the US, Switzerland, Denmark, Sweden and Singapore.

IMF: Glossary of Selected Financial Terms

To understand terms such as GDP, GNP ...etc
http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/glossary/index.asp

such as
Emerging Markets
The capital markets of developing countries that have liberalized their financial systems to promote capital flows with nonresidents and are broadly accessible to foreign investors.

Exchange rate
The price of one currency in terms of another. Most commonly, exchange rates are expressed as the number of units of domestic currency that will purchase one unit of foreign currency (e.g. units of currency per U.S. dollar). An exchange rate may also be defined as the inverse: the number of units of foreign currency that one unit of domestic currency will purchase.

Sources of MARKET ANALYSIS

Since January 2008 ITC’s market analysis tools Trade Map, Market Access Map, Investment Map and Product Map are now available as a package and are free to users in developing countries for 2008 calendar year and possibly beyond. This has been made possible thanks to financial support from ITC’s Global Trust Fund and the World Bank.

The package of tools, accessible at www.intracen.org/mat, makes it easier for you to identify export markets by bringing together in one place critical information about trade flows, market access barriers, investment and company information.

http://www.intracen.org/mat/

Market Analysis & Research

A guide on how to analyze the international trade flow
http://www.intracen.org/mat/UserGuide.aspx


Trade Competitiveness Map Benchmarking national and sectoral trade performance
http://www.intracen.org/mat/TradeCompetitivenessMap.aspx

Trade Classification

Based on ITC Note book

Two main components
1. Country Nomenclatures
2. Commodity Nomenclatures

Commodity Nomenclatures
1. HS
2. SITC
3. AHTN
4. BEC
5. ISIC


HS Codes
http://www.wcoomd.org/home_magazine.htm

Statistics on Malaysia Economic Planning Unit

Malaysia official source of Economic Statistics
( Economic Indicator, Malaysian Economy in Figures latest 2007)

http://www.epu.jpm.my/

World CUSTOM Organization

Link to the homepage
http://www.wcoomd.org/

International Monetary Fund -Statistics

The main page of IMF

http://www.imf.org/external/

Link to data and statistics (containt of World economic outlook database etc)
http://www.imf.org/external/data.htm

Bank Negara Malaysia- Statistics

This link to Statistics publish by BNM (exchange rate, Monthly statistically bulletin etc)
http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=12

International Trade Centre (ITC) - Trade Statistics Database

These address is link to ITC (International Trade Statistics)

http://www.intracen.org/tradstat/welcome.htm

Link to comprehensive statistics on international trade (imports and exports) for 261 product groups (of the Standard International Trade Classification SITC Rev.3), and for more than 170 countries over the period 2001 to 2005.

http://www.intracen.org/tradstat/sitc3-3d/INDEX.HTM

Link to overview Country profile
http://www.intracen.org/menus/countries.htm

Link to Trade Competitiveness MapAnalyse country and product competitiveness with trade flows

http://www.intracen.org/appli1/TradeCom/RS_EP_CI.aspx?RP=012&YR=2006

United Nation - Trade Statistics Database (comtarde)

These are a very useful website to understand trade classifcation also to obtain foreign trade data online

http://comtrade.un.org/

Comtrade database
http://comtrade.un.org/db/default.aspx

Comtrade Manuals and Documentations on how to extract data from comtrade databse
http://comtrade.un.org/kb/article.aspx?id=10104

List of Trade Classification such as SITC, BEC, ISC

http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cr/registry/regct.asp?Lg=1

Details of SITC classification

http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cr/registry/regcst.asp?Cl=28

WTO -Trade Statistics Database Free Online

This link to WTO Homepage
http://www.wto.org/

This address link to WTO database
http://stat.wto.org/Home/WSDBHome.aspx?Language=E


This address is link to WTO database which provide trade data from 1948 until 2007

http://stat.wto.org/StatisticalProgram/WSDBStatProgramHome.aspx

This address is link to WTO Country profile which provide the key indicator for all the countries
http://stat.wto.org/CountryProfile/WSDBCountryPFHome.aspx?Language=E

Sample for Malaysia

http://stat.wto.org/CountryProfiles/MY_e.htm

What is Trade Statistics (TS)

TS is a trade flow

Compilation of international merchandise Trade
Statistics (TS)
-TS are a by-product of customs procedures.
-The raw data for the compilation of trade statistics comes from customs declaration filled by exporters and importers and verified by customs authorities.

Malaysia's Trade

Malaysia's Trade Performance in the World Trade
In 2007, Malaysia is the 19 largest exporter and the 25th largest importer in world merchandise trade. Word exports valued at USD13,900 billion (M'sia :USD176 billion or 1.3% of world share) and world imports is USD14,200 billion (Malaysia:USD147 billion or 1% ) Source: WTO .

Detail see press release link WTO
http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres08_e/pr520_e.htm

Malaysia's Trade Performance in 2007
In 2007, Malaysia recorded the tenth consecutive year of trade surplus. The trade surplus of RM100.53 billion registered last year was the second highest ever recorded.

Details see press release link MATRADE
http://www.matrade.gov.my/matrade/matradeMedia012008.htm


Link to Department of Statistics Malaysia
http://www.statistics.gov.my/index.php

Link to Malaysia External Trade Cooperation
http://www.matrade.gov.my/foreignbuyer/Msiatradestats.htm

Getting Started

Hi! My name is Nana and I am a statistician. Most would say that statistics is boring but I would say that statistics is interesting. With statistics you could see the health of the country (by it Gross Domestic Products-GDP), the direction of the country growth (by it average GDP) and so much more.

As my work involves so much statistics and numbers... numbers... numbers... so I will update my blog time to time to highlight the joy of statistics. Wrote by fren..Ojah