For bilateral trade flow, there are usually two sources of data from
1. exporting country,
2. importing country
Intuitively, the exports reported by an exporting country should mirror the imports reported by its trading partner. In reality, it rarely the case. Why?
Reasons based on the study by various international organization.
1.Time lags
2. Valuation
3. Types of goods excluded from trade statistics
4. Trade System
5. Extent of re-export
6. Methodology difference
7.Exchange rate
etc
Some of the studies compiled:
What's the difference?-Comparing U.S and Chinese Trade Data
Discrepancies in Bilateral Trade Statistics: The case of Hong Kong and Singapore
Mirror Statistics , UN
Difference in the Mirror Statistics in INTRASTAT, EU
Why are imports and exports different? ITS, Newsletter
Adjusting Chinese Bilateral Trade Data: How Big is China's Trade Surplus? IMF
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
World trade Slipped to 6 % growth in 2007
5 November 2008
INTERNATIONAL TRADE STATISTICS
World trade slipped to 6 per cent growth in 2007, WTO report confirms
http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news08_e/its_oct08_e.htm
Weakening demand in developed countries, realignments in exchange rates and fluctuations in the prices for commodities, such as oil and gas, introduced uncertainties into the global markets in 2007. As a result, growth in world merchandise trade slipped to 6 per cent in real terms, down from 8.5 per cent in 2006, according to statistics published by the WTO on 5 November
INTERNATIONAL TRADE STATISTICS
World trade slipped to 6 per cent growth in 2007, WTO report confirms
http://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news08_e/its_oct08_e.htm
Weakening demand in developed countries, realignments in exchange rates and fluctuations in the prices for commodities, such as oil and gas, introduced uncertainties into the global markets in 2007. As a result, growth in world merchandise trade slipped to 6 per cent in real terms, down from 8.5 per cent in 2006, according to statistics published by the WTO on 5 November
FORECAST
Model 1:
Example to forecast export whole year 2008 with reference month up to september 2008
Xpts 2008 (9 mths) +(3mths for manufactured xprts + other commodities and mining goods other than petroleum and palm oil) X (revised GDP Q4 growth/Original GDP for Q4) + (Oct-Dec xpts of petroleum related products + xpts of palm oil) = 2008 Total exports (forecasted)
Model II.
Xpts of 2008 (9mths) + real Q4 GDP growth x avrage monthly export x 3 = 2008 Total exports (foreasted)
To get 2009 Xpts
2009 Xpts = 2008 total exports x real GDP growth projected for 2009
Example to forecast export whole year 2008 with reference month up to september 2008
Xpts 2008 (9 mths) +(3mths for manufactured xprts + other commodities and mining goods other than petroleum and palm oil) X (revised GDP Q4 growth/Original GDP for Q4) + (Oct-Dec xpts of petroleum related products + xpts of palm oil) = 2008 Total exports (forecasted)
Model II.
Xpts of 2008 (9mths) + real Q4 GDP growth x avrage monthly export x 3 = 2008 Total exports (foreasted)
To get 2009 Xpts
2009 Xpts = 2008 total exports x real GDP growth projected for 2009
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