FORECAST

Model 1:
Example to forecast export whole year 2008 with reference month up to september 2008

Xpts 2008 (9 mths) +(3mths for manufactured xprts + other commodities and mining goods other than petroleum and palm oil) X (revised GDP Q4 growth/Original GDP for Q4) + (Oct-Dec xpts of petroleum related products + xpts of palm oil) = 2008 Total exports (forecasted)


Model II.

Xpts of 2008 (9mths) + real Q4 GDP growth x avrage monthly export x 3 = 2008 Total exports (foreasted)


To get 2009 Xpts

2009 Xpts = 2008 total exports x real GDP growth projected for 2009